観光収入1さて、カシコンが何故、2020年を通してバーツが強くなるといっているのかという点については、下に添付した英文の記事を読んで下さい。

私は為替のアナリストでもないので、彼らの予想についてああだこうだといえる立場にはありませんが、
さすが観光立国タイ。

世界4位、600億ドル以上もの観光収入と巨額の外貨準備金を持ち、その海外経常収支が注目されて、世界の投資家からヘイブンカレンシー(避難通貨)として今年も買われ続けるということのようです。


もっとも、為替の予想は大体外れるので、カシコン銀行であってもその予測が的中するのかどうかはわかりませんが…。

ドルバーツただ、年末にはドルバーツは30バーツを割り込み、29.25バーツまで高くなるという彼らの予想が正しければ、不動産市場に外国人投資家が戻ってくる可能性も低いということです。

今回の著書や「2年分以上の販売在庫を抱えたデベロッパー」でも書いたように、タイ人の投資需要が中央銀行によって締め出された結果、今後バンコクのコンドミニアム市場が復活するには外国人投資家が不可欠だと、私は思っています。

そうなると、もしカシコン銀行の予想が正しければ、バンコクの不動産市場もまだまだ低迷が続くということだろうと思うのです。

最近は、このブログでもネガティブな話が多いのですが、私もできるだけ客観的に考えているつもりです。この状況下で、新規で売り出されたプレビルドが買いだ、などという人がいるとすれば、販売在庫の処分に奔走するデベロッパーのセールスか、コミッション目当ての仲介業者ぐらいなのではないかと思います。

このブログが参考になったらシェアお願いします。

 

にほんブログ村 海外生活ブログ バンコク情報へ

にほんブログ村

KBank: Baht to rise throughout 2020

Economic imbalance spurs relentless climb

The baht's strength is expected to continue throughout this year, buoyed by Thailand's increased surpluses in current account and trade balance coupled with flat growth in imports, says Kasikornbank (KBank).

The local currency's value is forecast to hover around 29.75 against the US dollar in the first half before appreciating to 29.25 by the end of the year, said Kobsidthi Silpachai, KBank's head of capital markets research.


On Dec 30, the baht touched a six-year high of 29.90 per dollar before depreciating into the 30s in 2020. Anaemic trade volume as the holidays approached allowed some investors to easily manipulate the baht, while the country's economic fundamentals also contributed to the previous gain.


The baht was Asia's best-performing currency last year, rising by more than 7%, according to Reuters.

Despite subdued economic growth, the baht gained from the country's massive current account surplus, inflows of tourism revenue and near-record foreign reserves.

KBank: Baht can go higher

Rate cut will not slow baht appreciation

KBank predicts baht climb against dollar

Ample foreign reserves have made Thailand stand out as a safe haven to park capital, either for actual investment or speculation.

"We estimate that the country's current account will record a surplus of US$33.8 billion this year, a reflection of imbalances in the economy," Mr Kobsidthi said.

Thailand's current account surplus totalled $33.2 billion as of November 2019, accounting for 5.3% of GDP, according to Bank of Thailand data.

The country's trade surplus with the US was $19 billion in 2019, according to the US Treasury Department.

Although the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to make another 25-basis-point rate cut this quarter to shore up economic growth momentum and fend off appreciation, limited monetary policy space will still put pressure on the baht's upward trend going forward, Mr Kobsidthi said.

Thailand's GDP growth is projected at 2.7% this year, supported by fiscal 2020 disbursement budget and public investment, he said.

Drought is anticipated to incur economic losses of more than 20 billion baht or 0.1% of Thailand's GDP, Mr Kobsidthi said.

If economic losses stemming from drought and fourth-quarter GDP growth data are worse than expected, the 2.7% growth forecast could be downgraded, he said.

The tweak to ease loan-to-value (LTV) regulations is not projected to rev up property sales, he said, as purchasing power has been dented by elevated household debt, which accounts for 79% of GDP.

The ratio of household debt to income is as high as 220%, contributing to a slowdown in private consumption, Mr Kobsidthi said.

The Bank of Thailand has eased the LTV rules governing mortgage lending, shortening the minimum debt-servicing period for first mortgages required for those seeking a second loan for homes priced below 10 million baht.

Another change was lowering the minimum down payment for first mortgages for homes valued at 10 million baht or more.